Has anyone asked Toyota or a dealer about updates?
Digging into the update system, it looks broken. The GR86 head unit makes update checks over Wi-Fi to a fixed URL ending in ...redbend.com. This is a company that specialises in OTA update distribution. Which makes sense. However, they appear to no longer be online. So, when your car says "No update available", that's because the request generates a 404 error. There is simply no reply as the server is offline. The only obvious way to fix this would be a software update via USB.